Venezuela Watch 9/30

1. On investing in Venezuelan gold mining companies:

   Essentially the broader issue that this story is meant to illuminate is: Why touch these Venezuelan equities at all, when there are so many other good development and production stories out there that don’t have this uncertainty, and still have great upside?
   
   Investing in Venezuela is not an educated bet, and it now has been completely disconnected from the companies or their assets – it is simply a bet on an unstable, mercurial nutcase named Chavez. No one can predict his next move, including the analysts, so even if the new Castro behaves, there will always be huge discounts.

   Here is an investment opportunity for left-leaning contrarians.


2. On unrequited love - At least, Zapatero will always have Chavez. Update: Cuba is now out but Venezuela will still pay homage to its former colonial master.